Nasty but Hamonious
After reaching a high of 4808 at the start of 2022, it was a downward journey for the rest of the year. At least, to a casual observer, that is how it appeared. Looking deeper at the S&P behavior reveals something humbling. The declines on the S&P 500 were occurring in harmony with science and Nature. Consider the following chart segment of the S&P from early 2022. In particular, consider the move lower from A to B. The recovery attempt from B to C was an amount equal to 61.8% of the A to B amount. The move lower (C to D) was an amount equal to 78.6% of the A to B amount. The move higher (E to F) was 78.6% of the A-B amount. The substantial move lower F to G was 161.8% of the A-B amount.
What do these various numbers (61.8%, 78.6%, 161.8%) have in common? They are all Fibonacci retracements/extensions. The Fibonacci recursive sequence is 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144…. Taking one of these terms and dividing it by the prior term gives figure that converges on 1.618. This is known in science and Nature as the Golden Mean. Taking the inverse of 1.618 yields a value 61.8%. Taking the inverse of the root of 1.618 gives 78.6%.
So while the price action of a stock, a commodity, or an index might appear to be random and nasty, peel back the layers of the veil and you will all too often find price moves that are in alignment with the Golden Mean.
